The last temptation of the UOC?

So, the authorities have taken the next step in their fight against the UOC. Stripping the Primate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of his citizenship is not only clearly unconstitutional, but also highly political. But is this a move to eliminate the UOC, and what are the possible scenarios for how this situation could develop? Let’s try to figure it out.

Scenario #1: Deportation of the Primate of the UOC

This version has already been expressed in some media outlets, but we believe that it would be too simple, and here’s why. Even in the event of the detention or, God forbid, forced deportation of Metropolitan Onufry, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the UOC. The Church is a long-established institution with quite acceptable administrative resources, which can function calmly, even in emergency situations, without the Primate. The UOC has a Council, a Synod, and an Administration, after all. Therefore, even in the worst-case scenario, which for us would undoubtedly be the deportation of the Primate of the UOC, the Church would be able to continue functioning.

A perfect example in this case is the Estonian Orthodox Christian Church. In Estonia, about a year ago, a similar situation occurred when the Primate of the EOC, Metropolitan Eugene of Tallinn and All Estonia, was expelled from the country. Despite this, the administrative functions were transferred to Metropolitan Eugene’s vicar, Archbishop Daniel of Tartu, who is coping with them quite well. At the same time, Metropolitan Eugene governs the Estonian Church remotely.

In other words, the UOC does not focus on one person, and, if necessary, the duties of the Primate will be performed by one or a group of bishops of the UOC. In history, this will be called a Synodal period or a Conciliar settlement.

Scenario No. 2: Arrest of His Beatitude and usurpation of power in the UOC

In the comments on the news that concerns us, many subscribers expressed the opinion that such a move by the government is calculated to ensure that, in the event of his arrest or expulsion, someone more loyal and compliant will be “pushed through” to replace the Primate of the UOC someone more loyal and compliant, who would be able to meet the authorities halfway and start a dialogue with the OCU “without preconditions.” However, this hypothesis is hardly justified for several reasons.

First of all, it is not in anyone’s interest to make Metropolitan Onufry a martyr. If the government proceeds with the arrest of His Beatitude, this will naturally cause rejection by most of the Local Churches and will finally bury the already fragile position of the OCU, which will quite naturally be accused of having an interest in this situation. In addition, such a situation would deal a painful blow to Patriarch Bartholomew, because it was with his blessing that the Ukrainian church issue became a crisis not only for Ukraine, Russia, and the Phanar, but for the entire Orthodox world. The arrest of an innocent old man who has not said a word in the last three years is, as they say, the very “tu mach” that, in the environment of the Local Churches, will be put “on display” to the head of the Phanar.

And the Russian passport of His Beatitude, even if he has one, will not be an argument for Bartholomew, who probably has not one, but three or four citizenships: Turkey, Greece, and the United States, at a minimum. Note that the Greeks, who are in constant confrontation with the Turks, for some reason do not demand that Patriarch Bartholomew renounce his Turkish citizenship.

Secondly, in response to the version that someone more compliant will be appointed to the position of Primate of the UOC in order to unite the UOC with the OCU. According to the Statute of the UOC, the Primate is an elected and lifetime position. The Primate can only be replaced if he dies or renounces the primacy for objective reasons. Even if, purely theoretically, they try to use this protocol, it will definitely be rejected by the majority of the episcopate, clergy, and laity of the UOC, since the whole farce of the situation will be obvious. As a result, the authorities will get, at a minimum, a new schism, and at most, nothing.

Scenario No. 3: Raskolam.net version

Despite the emotional nature of the situation, we continue to stick to the line we proposed to our readers about six months ago. The essence of this line is that everything that is happening with the UOC must be analyzed exclusively in the context of geopolitics and Russian-Ukrainian relations.

From secular sources of information, we learn that another round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will take place in the near future, which should lead to a settlement of the war. It is obvious that Ukraine’s position in the upcoming negotiations is extremely vulnerable: territorial losses, complete economic collapse, political destabilization for reasons that are clear to everyone. What will the representatives of the Ukrainian delegation offer as trump cards at the next round of negotiations in Istanbul? One of the few arguments is, of course, the rights and freedoms of the UOC.

In this regard, in the opinion of our editorial board, the deprivation of citizenship of the Primate of the UOC is understood as the last trump card that the Ukrainian government can offer to the Russian side. That is, “look, we can do this, but if you, for example, stop the offensive on the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, then we can slow down and freeze the issue with Onufriy.”

Thus, stripping the Primate of the UOC of his citizenship is a raising of the stakes in the political arena and, in a sense, a message that the Ukrainian side will stop at nothing to gain at least some bonuses before the future peace agreement, which will be disastrous from a political point of view. It is for this reason that, over the past few months, opinion polls have been promoting the idea that Ukrainians are ready to lift the ban on the UOC if it helps bring about peace.

The most important thing in this situation is how Russia will react. Of course, the Russian side may take these risks very seriously and respond to some of the Ukrainian side’s demands. However, it is quite possible that Russia will perceive the situation with the Primate of the UOC as a bluff and even allow the deportation of His Beatitude in order to make the most of this track at the international level. They will say, “Look, we were right when we said that Ukraine is ruled by a fascist regime that persecutes the largest religious organization, even deporting its leaders.”

Thus, we are 100% sure that the revocation of the citizenship of the Primate of the UOC is a purely political move, which the Ukrainian side is ready to use as an argument in the negotiation process. At the same time, we do not rule out that the Russians will not fall for this “trick,” in which case the Primate of the UOC may be deported from the country, thereby increasing pressure on the Church.