Will the OCU have time to finish off the UOC?

An extremely revealing trend has been observed recently with regard to the issue of the so-called transitions of UOC religious communities to the OCU. Since 2024, regional administrations have reported, one after another, that the process has radically slowed down. The OCU itself is reluctant to admit this, blaming some mystical pro-Russian forces that have been unable to identify, name, and defeat for three years of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Another characteristic point is that the number of “transitions” from the UOC to the OCU increases the further away from the front line, which is paradoxical, because, logically, those who suffer from the war more than others should be much more receptive to the official position of the state that the UOC is the enemy. Predictably, and not for the first time in the modern history of Ukraine, the UOC parishes in the westernmost regions of the country, where the UGCC, not the OCU, prevails more than others, were defeated and in fact driven underground, which also speaks volumes.

Thus, it becomes obvious that as foreign policy problems increase, the deep state is losing interest in cracking down on the UOC in favor of the OCU. Firstly, because official propaganda has failed to convince society that the simulacrum in the form of the OCU is the church they need most. Because of this, the parishes of the UOC that could be somehow “swayed” toward the OCU were taken away immediately, and the rest could neither be convinced nor intimidated.

Secondly, as the classic said, the one who hinders us will help us. In this case, the OCU itself is really succeeding more than others. Constant scandals and internal squabbles in the organization turn society away from this denomination, and the seized churches of the UOC are often empty or completely closed, as evidenced by public statements by such OCU sympathizers as Yuri Chernomorets or Lyudmila Filipovich. In addition, Dumenko has skillfully alienated most of the Local Churches, trying to play the role of a kind of subjective Zelensky at the inter-Orthodox level. The issue of new recognitions of the OCU has completely stalled, and even Patriarch Bartholomew cannot influence this unpleasant trend for Dumenko.

The only chance for the OCU to complete the process of destroying the rival UOC is the scandalous Law No. 3894, which is being heavily criticized by international human rights organizations. Of course, we can turn a blind eye to this, but this possibility will exist until the negotiation process to reach a settlement agreement between Russia and Ukraine begins. Whether we like it or not, the Russian leadership has outlined the interests that are basic to peace negotiations, and the church issue is certainly among them. It is quite possible that this is why the implementation of the law banning the UOC is being hushed up, diverting attention from this topic.

As a result, the OCU has less and less room for maneuver, and general trends are not on their side. Of course, according to the most optimistic forecasts, it will take a considerable amount of time to restore the status quo that existed before the war, but it is also clear that the light at the end of the tunnel has begun to appear from time to time, giving hope for an end to the ongoing anti-church frenzy between politicians and the OCU.